Amazing the difference a week makes.
Last Monday, it appeared that Stephen Harper and his Conservative party had lost the confidence of parliament. This morning, it appears instead that Mr. Harper is fine, but that Stéphane Dion has lost the confidence of his Liberal party.
Mr. Dion had positioned himself at the head of a centre-left coalition government-in-waiting with the assistance of Jack Layton and the NDP. As stated here previously, this is the route (a big tent) that should be taken if these two parties really want to rout resurgent Conservatives.
Mr. Layton of course would do just about anything to get into cabinet, and prove that the NDP are just as capable of governing as the Liberals. And therein lies the danger to the Liberal brand; Mr. Dion would assume power (and, one supposes, the re-assume the reins of his own party), but in so doing challenge the notion that the Liberals are the natural governing party. Instead, they would become one of the alternatives to a Conservative government.
That doesn't wash with Michael Ignatieff, the presumptive heir to the Liberal throne, and so now Mr. Dion finds himself on the way out rather than the way in.
The story turns of course, on the most important conversation Mr. Harper has had... well, this week. He successfully swayed Canada's ultimate swing voter - Governor General Michaëlle Jean (who compares quite favourably to her American counterpart, below) - that she should prorogue parliament, rather than allowing what likely would have become a non-confidence vote to transpire this morning.
Mr. Harper's behaviour in some respects may have dimmed the shine of his political star, but his ability to help the Governor General see his logic shows he hasn't lost the magic. He likely asked her to put the coalition to the wait-and-see test, rather than his government. If the coalition can survive until the end of January, then maybe it should govern. But if it can't survive its own birth, what chance does it have running the government?
As suggested here the other day, Mr. Harper has sprung the trap, possibly with intent, but so far without grievous bodily harm. Since then the internecine politics within the Liberal party have allowed him to survive, and possibly even enjoy increasing popular support for the Conservatives. Meanwhile, Mr. Ignatieff is positioned to assume the mantle of leader without troubling a single rank-and-file party member with a bothersome leadership conference.
Which causes me to wonder... if Mr. Dion - an otherwise seemingly inept leader - was able to cobble together other parties to initiate this threat, is it possible that his competitors within the Liberal party (say, Iggy and friends) were concurrently reaching out to their own strange bedfellows (the Prime Minister maybe?) to thwart Mr. Dion's efforts? Why else the incendiary budget update (you know, aside from mean-spirited über-partisanship), if Mr. Harper didn't already know the trap was laying in wait for him?
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