On June 25, Stephen Harper shuffled his cabinet. David Emerson, who crossed the floor to the Conservatives from the Liberals shortly after the last federal election, was promoted from his posts as Minister of International Trade and Minister for the Pacific Gateway and the Vancouver-Whistler Olympics to Foreign Affairs.
At the time, Macleans reported THE CANADIAN PRESS reported (emphasis my own),
Harper is determined to keep Emerson in government, instructing Tory officials to find a safe British Columbia riding for the former top B.C. bureaucrat and business leader to run in during the next election.
Emerson currently represents Vancouver Kingsway, where he was twice elected as a Liberal. However, his stunning defection to the Tories sparked an angry backlash in the riding, the lingering effects of which would likely doom any attempt to seek a third term.
Indeed, Emerson has signalled privately that he'll quit politics rather than face humiliating defeat. Hence, Conservatives are searching for another riding where Emerson would be more welcome.
Insiders say Tory officials are now exploring the possibility of a riding in B.C.'s Conservative-friendly interior.
So, into which Conservative-friendly Interior riding do you think Mr. Emerson might parachute?
Both Wikipedia and the Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections indicate the following candidates have been nominated to represent the Conservative Party in the next federal election here in BC's Interior:
- Robert Zandee: British Columbia Southern Interior
- Ronald D.E. Cannan: Kelowna - Lake Country
- Colin Mayes: Okanagan - Shuswap
- Stockwell B. Day: Okanagan - Coquihalla
- Jim Abbott: Kootenay - Columbia
- Richard (Dick) Harris: Cariboo - Prince George
- Jay Hill: Prince George - Peace River
- Sharon Smith: Skeenna - Bulkley Valley
That leaves just one BC Interior riding without a nominated candidate for the next election: Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo. Betty Hinton didn't win the last election by a landslide (in fact, it was the narrowest winning margin of those carried by the Conservatives in the Interior during the 2006 election), so one might argue that this is the least "Conservative-friendly" riding in the Heartlands. But since then Ms. Hinton has delivered a lot of goodies, so with the right candidate in place, Kamloops - Thompson - Cariboo should be a solid blue win.
Given that this is the only Interior riding in which Mr. Emerson would not displace a duly-nominated candidate, the political bounce would probably be considerably less here than elsewhere. Of course Mr. Emerson's position as a star in Harper's cabinet would also play well; it's been a long time since a Kamloops MP sat in cabinet. And there has been a lot of speculation as to why the local Conservative riding association has not nominated a candidate to replace Ms. Hinton since she announced in October of 2007 that she wouldn't run in the next election.
Mr. Emerson's deep domain expertise in the forestry and transportation sectors is a strong positive, although forestry might become a weakness if the local contest turned into a referendum on the 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement he ushered in as Minister for International Trade. But if the Minister does land in Kamloops, the shrillest shrieks of outrage won't come from voters, but rather from NDP and Liberal riding associations caught flat-footed without their own star candidates.
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